Using polynomial (viz., linear, quadratic and cubic) and exponential models fluctuation in area, production and productivity of wheat crop in Gujarat state was studied. The data for the years 1960-61 to 2006-07 were used for model fitting and efficiency of the fitted model(s) was tested using data of 2007-08 to 2010-11. The models were fitted on original data as well as three, four and five year moving averages data. The most suitable model was selected on the basis of adjusted R2, significant regression coefficient, root mean square error, mean absolute error, normality (Shapiro-Wilk test) and randomness of residual’s (Run test) distribution. The results showed that none of the models was suitable for area prediction whereas third degree polynomial model on original data was found suitable to fit the trend of production and productivity of wheat in Gujarat state with adjusted R2 values of 53.75 and 85.30 respectively.